Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have rapidly grown into a multibillion-dollar industry, allowing users to wager on everything from sports and daily weather to elections and religious events. Asher Darling explores how these platforms differ from traditional sportsbooks by operating as peer-to-peer exchanges, while also examining the debate over whether they are truly forecasting tools or simply another form of gambling. Trading volume has skyrocketed in recent years, with the industry reaching roughly $40 billion and monthly activity increasing dramatically throughout 2024 and 2025. Because prediction markets are federally regulated, they are accessible in all 50 states to users 18 and older, raising concerns about oversight and accessibility for younger users. Through interviews with Menlo students Darius Landsdorf and Jacob Elkes, Darling’s piece highlights both the appeal and risks of these platforms. Landsdorf describes being drawn in by the app’s variety and accessibility, while Elkes argues that prediction markets are effectively online casinos with far weaker regulation. Darling also discusses concerns surrounding insider information, citing examples of users profiting heavily from correctly predicting geopolitical events. While both students acknowledge the growing popularity of prediction markets, they disagree on the industry’s future: Elkes expects increased regulation, whereas Landsdorf believes the platforms are likely here to stay.

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