Chloe Lien argues that the United States must defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion or blockade, while stopping short of actions that could trigger nuclear conflict. Early capitulation, she contends, would be strategically catastrophic: enabling China to dismantle Taiwan’s democratic institutions, dictate annexation terms, and grow emboldened in its broader regional ambitions across the Indo-Pacific. Three core pillars support this argument. Taiwan is indispensable to global technology leadership, as TSMC produces the vast majority of the world’s advanced semiconductors; ceding the island would hand Beijing control over chips critical to AI, military applications, and the global economy — and domestic reshoring efforts remain years behind. Taiwan also holds irreplaceable military-strategic value as the linchpin of the First Island Chain, enabling the US to monitor and contain Chinese naval activity; Chinese control would dramatically expand Beijing’s undersea strike capabilities. Finally, abandoning Taiwan would severely damage US credibility with key Asian allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, potentially driving them toward accommodation with China and undermining the broader liberal world order. Lien concludes that effective deterrence requires a coordinated effort: bolstering Taiwan’s asymmetric defenses, maintaining strong alliances, and presenting China with an unacceptable cost-benefit calculus before any conflict begins.

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